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The China Tourism Academy (CTA) in Beijing reports further strong developments in domestic and outbound tourism in China for the first three quarters of 2011, while inbound tourism growth is still lagging behind. As a result, the trade deficit of China’s international travel surpassed 10 billion USD for the first time. The results were published in Chinese, translated and edited by COTRI China Outbound Tourism Research Institute, based in Heide (Germany) and Beijing (China).
The Chinese tourism market has grown rapidly, whilst the satisfaction index has continued to improve
Currently, the environment for tourism development in China is overall favourable. The tourism economy keeps increasing relatively rapidly and portends to a good situation. The total number of trips in the first three quarters is expected to be 2.08 billion, an increase of 12% compared to 2010. The comprehensive benefits of tourism are obvious; the total tourism income for 2011 is 1.66 trillion CNY, an increase of 17% compared to 2010. The national tourists’ satisfaction index shows continuing improvement and the domestic tourists’ satisfaction index in most of the sample cities has also continued to improve. In the third quarter, the comprehensive tourists’ satisfaction index is 80.48, which means “satisfied”. It is expected that the national development goal for the year will be achieved, whilst the development of the national tourism market has already gone beyond expectation.
Tourism figures for first three quarters 2011
As recorded by the satisfaction index, the satisfaction of domestic group and individual tourists has continued to grow, while the satisfaction of inbound tourists and outbound tourists has fluctuated slightly. The index of domestic tourists is 85.25, “relatively satisfied”. The satisfaction of outbound tourists has been lower than that of domestic tourists for two consecutive quarters. The index of inbound tourists is 85.19, “relatively satisfied”. The index of individual tourists has grown relatively fast and the gap between the index of individual tourists and group tourists has been constantly narrowing.
The prosperity level of tourism has continued to grow
In the first three quarters of 2011, the tourism industry has had “relative prosperity” and the prosperity level has continued to grow, as shown by the indices for the three quarters, which are respectively 124.68, 132.79 and 133.61. The prosperity of travel agencies, restaurants, sights and tourism conglomerates has remained at the level “relatively prosperous”; respectively 129.97, 134.36, 134.90 and 131.37. In terms of different indicators for enterprises, the index of income prosperity is relatively high, but the pressure of cost is relatively big. The comprehensive index of the prosperity of each indicator is: number of tourists 129.62; income 128.26; salary of staff at the end of the quarter 127.36; entry price 126.60; tax amount 125.13; number of staff at the end of the quarter 117.69. The index for cost has been low in 2011 so far, in the first three quarters 84.44, 82.82 and 84.04, which means that the pressure of cost is relatively big. Concerning the enterprise performances, development has tended to be good. For example, from January to August the average rate of hotels with stars has grown 3.5%, an increase of 3%. The number of domestic tourists taking trips with travel agencies has grown 40%, the number of tourists arriving at sights has grown more than 40%, whilst the comprehensive income has grown more than 20% and the number of travellers grown by 8.1%.
The satisfaction index of tourism services is 76.02, which means “basically satisfied”. It has grown 1.19 in relation to the previous quarter and 6.01 compared to the same period 2010. The satisfaction index of each indicator is respectively from highest to lowest: sightseeing places 76.37; services of travel agencies 75.57; entertainment 75.49; accommodation 75.07; traffic 74.93; shopping 74.01; and catering 73.94. Trends show that the satisfaction indices of traffic, shopping and catering are relatively low. In regards to factors that affect satisfaction, the indices of price, methods of promotion and complaints services are generally low, the latter being a common factor for all types of tourist. When looking specifically, group tourists are least satisfied with prices, methods of promotion, the modernization level and complaints systems. Individual tourists are least satisfied with prices, cultural content, methods of promotion and complaints systems. Inbound tourists are least satisfied with ecological climate, public hygiene, barrier free services, traffic, food hygiene, methods of promotion and complaints systems. Outbound tourists are least satisfied with shopping quality and complaints systems.
More innovation and cooperation in regional tourism: The tourists’ satisfaction index continued to grow
The gap between the tourism economy of each region, classed as Eastern, Central and Westerly China, is small; all stand at “relative prosperity” in the first three quarters, with prosperity indices respectively at 132.79, 131.41 and 130.51. Travel via high-speed train, summer vacation travel, “red tourism”, the horticultural Expo in Xi’an and so on, have effectively promoted the tourism market in the three regions. However, the Bohai Bay oil spill has had a negative effect on coastal tourism in that area. Stimulating the development of regional tourism with “hot” events, such as short-term fairs, has been continuously decreasing. Currently, the field is relying more on endogenous factors such as consumption habit, the laws of the market, economical and social development and so on. The operation of the tourism economy has now entered a relatively stable development period.
Development forecast: the development environment is steady but still tightening, the tourism economy has overall maintained a good growth trend.
There are challenges in the development environment inside and outside of China, but also clear opportunities. The index of leading indicators of tourism economy is 105.34 for the third quarter of 2011, slightly lower than the second quarter’s 106.1, and considered to be at the level of “a little prosperity”. This means that the operation of tourism economy will stay stable overall. However, the uncertainty of the international economy and signs that the development environment of the national economy is only in the adjustment period, have an obvious effect on expectations for the operation of tourism economy in the future.
The desire of national residents to travel in the fourth quarter is 85.3%, slightly higher than 84.7% for the same period the previous year. The index of tourism booking prosperity is 131.43, a growth of 4.48 compared to the previous quarter. The index of the tourism entrepreneurs’ confidence reached 135, a growth of 2.1 in relation to the previous quarter. The index of tourism investment is 119.25, almost the same as 120.07 in the previous quarter. Tourism consumption in the future will be more rational, returning from conspicuous consumption to mass consumption. Tourism investment will also tend to be rational, moving from incremental regulation to stock adjustment. Popular events such as national holidays (the golden week), “red tourism”, commemorating the centenary of revolution and the launch of wisdom tourism, will effectively motivate the tourism market.
It is expected that the overall goal of tourism development in 2011 can be achieved, and the growth of domestic and outbound tourism will go beyond expectation, but statistics show that inbound tourism will be lower than previously expected.
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